Looking at Early Holiday Shopping Toy Sales

The holiday toy season has begun — and manufacturers already look pooped.

Big toymakers like Mattel and Hasbro have failed to launch any new, blockbuster toys this year, analysts say. That, in turn, has left toy franchises that are already a year old or more to pick up the slack.

Amid the shopping frenzy on Black Friday, top-selling toys smacked of stuff that was almost, but not quite new: licensed dolls, for example, from Disney’s “Frozen 2” — the sequel to a movie that debuted in 2013, according to Adobe Analytics.

Other winners included O.M.G. dolls — updated, larger versions of MGA Entertainment’s L.O.L. Surprise! dolls, which first appeared three years ago; and Spin Master Entertainment’s Paw Patrol animated series, which also first launched in 2013.

This year to date, the lack of new stuff has hurt business. Toy sales are already down more than expected — 5.5 percent through the first nine months of the year, according to BMO Capital Markets.

“There’s no breakout hot product to drive traffic to stores or online,” wrote BMO analyst Gerrick Johnson. Even after the holiday surge, he expects toy sales to be down 2 percent this year.